Post by account_disabled on Mar 3, 2024 22:39:32 GMT -8
The Bank of Spain's forecasts are for general inflation of 3.2% at the end of 2023 and 3.6% in 2024 (with underlying inflation at and , respectively). Funcas, for its part, estimates an interannual variation of the general CPI in December 2023 of and in of The rise in these months is due to base effects linked to energy and the persistent rise in food prices (10.8%). It will remain somewhat elevated in 2024 due to the planned withdrawal of government measures in response to the war in Ukraine. However, we see that prices are considerably lower than when they peaked in 2022, but refueling today is still significantly more expensive than two years ago. Pumps at a gas station in Madrid EFE/ Sergio Ordúñez Despite the rebound, the situation is favorable and moderate. If compared to the Eurozone, Spanish inflation has been lower for some time. Partly due to the greater intensity and speed of the deceleration in energy prices. The underlying CPI spread is also more favorable.
Spain also presents greater wage moderation – compared to Germany and neighboring countries – which would contribute to lower growth in service prices. split route An intense streak of falls breaks but there should Job Function Email Database be no panic; Spanish inflation is the lowest in the Eurozone These Spanish virtues contrast with the application of the same restrictive monetary measures as in the rest of the eurozone, with higher inflation. That is why the ECB was created, for a single monetary policy. With its advantages but also with some negative side effects, as is the case now. What will happen next? There could be a pause in rate increases in September, but no one rules out further increases (one or two more, 25 basis points). Even more so if inflation takes a while to return to the ECB's reference, 2%. The growth of Euribor and other types of markets would further cool the European economy.
The labor market appears poised to hold out for a while. It is likely that increases in the price of money – or the prolongation of high rates – will continue as long as the reference level of inflation does not return. It's like a half-inflated float. When one part of the plastic is stepped on (for example, energy prices), others (such as rents, textiles or processed foods) rise. This means that keeping the entire medium float inflated and balanced may require more than two hands. That is why we have monetary policy making part of the effort, but fiscal policy must also be consistent with its part of responsibility and apply measures that are not inflationary. And income policy (especially wages and margins) must also play its role in the face of price growth.
Spain also presents greater wage moderation – compared to Germany and neighboring countries – which would contribute to lower growth in service prices. split route An intense streak of falls breaks but there should Job Function Email Database be no panic; Spanish inflation is the lowest in the Eurozone These Spanish virtues contrast with the application of the same restrictive monetary measures as in the rest of the eurozone, with higher inflation. That is why the ECB was created, for a single monetary policy. With its advantages but also with some negative side effects, as is the case now. What will happen next? There could be a pause in rate increases in September, but no one rules out further increases (one or two more, 25 basis points). Even more so if inflation takes a while to return to the ECB's reference, 2%. The growth of Euribor and other types of markets would further cool the European economy.
The labor market appears poised to hold out for a while. It is likely that increases in the price of money – or the prolongation of high rates – will continue as long as the reference level of inflation does not return. It's like a half-inflated float. When one part of the plastic is stepped on (for example, energy prices), others (such as rents, textiles or processed foods) rise. This means that keeping the entire medium float inflated and balanced may require more than two hands. That is why we have monetary policy making part of the effort, but fiscal policy must also be consistent with its part of responsibility and apply measures that are not inflationary. And income policy (especially wages and margins) must also play its role in the face of price growth.